Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
40 0x4078…a7f7 other 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$840 (+6%) realized +$1,007 · open −$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate62%100W / 60L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$98
14 days+$109
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$394
sports 20% +$260
crypto 10% −$105
politics 10% −$56
economics 8% +$70
tech 4% −$50
world 3% +$12
finance 1% +$222
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +39.0% +25.8% 83% 83% +12.0%
≤30d 20 +6.5% -3.6% 60% 60% -0.1%
≤90d 31 +7.5% -2.8% 55% 48% +8.3%
all 160 -2.2% -11.5% 62% 24% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 24% -3.2%
10% -20.0% 19% -12.4%
15% -27.7% 16% -20.9%
20% -34.8% 12% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$27 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$1,501
Realized+$1,007
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses100 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)160 / 172
History coverage256d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $730 $696 −$35 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $415 $370 −$45 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $82 $118 +$37 (+45%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $44 $99 +$55 (+123%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $86 $54 −$32 (-37%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Yes 90¢ 87¢ $45 $44 −$2 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $36 $32 −$5 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $43 $28 −$15 (-34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-24%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $20 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $68 +$12 +17%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $19 +$21 +113%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $32 +$31 +96%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $145 +$43 +30%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $59 −$20 -34%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 +$49 +158%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $40 +$19 +48%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 +$25 +62%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$12 +119%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $40 +$15 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 $0 -3%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $27 −$26 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $29 −$28 -99%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +54%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $191 +$3 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $268 +$6 +2%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $20 +$80 +400%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $130 +$70 +54%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31? Mar 30 $29 +$70 +242%
Will Germany vs. Ghana end in a draw? Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Mar 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 27? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 7? Mar 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Colts vs. Steelers Mar 22 $189 −$189 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? Mar 19 $16 −$3 -19%
Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31? Mar 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $3.50 by March 31? Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Mar 08 $18 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $1,301 −$28 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $203 $0 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 27 $200 $0 -0%
Will Mira Nair be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28 Feb 22 $19 $0 +2%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 21 $271 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 19 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $280 $0 -0%
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 14 $53 +$47 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $23 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $66 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 85¢ $68 23h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 36h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $185 36h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 36h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $64 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $64 4d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $264 4d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $158 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $78 5d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $63 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 5d
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 5d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $187 6d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 6d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $39 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $33 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $2 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $8 8d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 87¢ $47 8d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 8d
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 8d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $40 8d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 8d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $41 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,500.70 · official $1,500.70 (match) · 502 history records