Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4079…7126
weather · 279 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,236 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,065 · open −$151
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,245
Realized+$3,065
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses140 / 121
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions18
Markets (closed)261 / 279
History coverage94d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 18 History 261 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days+$307
14 days+$889
30 days+$3,125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $547 $559 +$12 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $483 $500 +$16 (+3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $377 $385 +$8 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 54¢ $484 $321 −$163 (-34%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $276 $291 +$15 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 81¢ $258 $243 −$15 (-6%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 28¢ 24¢ $186 $165 −$21 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $124 $139 +$16 (+13%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $160 $128 −$32 (-20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $101 $93 −$8 (-8%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $84 $91 +$8 (+9%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 66¢ 84¢ $66 $84 +$18 (+28%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $82 $80 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 3¢ $70 $62 −$8 (-11%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 11¢ 22¢ $11 $24 +$12 (+107%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? No 24¢ 22¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-10%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Zhejiang Lions 28¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 15? No 42¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? No 5¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $70 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $80 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $95 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $56 −$25 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$30 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$24 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $45 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$49 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $86 +$15 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$27 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $122 −$16 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% +$625
crypto 17% −$11
weather 15% +$1,904
other 12% −$3
politics 6% +$252
sports 4% +$107
tech 2% +$40
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -5.9% -14.9% 64% 43% -5.4%
≤30d 160 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 36% +9.3%
≤90d 259 -7.3% -16.1% 53% 38% +6.2%
all 261 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 39% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 39% +6.2%
10% -23.6% 24% -3.9%
15% -31.0% 17% -13.2%
20% -37.8% 13% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,244.82 · official $3,251.77 (match) · 1440 history records