Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x407b…017a crypto 373 markets active 5d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$167 (-6%) realized −$167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%95W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$70
14 days−$70
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$331
sports 10% −$69
other 2% −$61
weather 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -34.0% -40.3% 21% 21% -16.8%
≤30d 125 -11.2% -19.7% 22% 22% -22.3%
≤90d 373 -17.4% -25.2% 25% 25% -25.2%
all 373 -17.4% -25.2% 25% 25% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 25% -25.2%
10% -32.4% 24% -32.3%
15% -38.9% 23% -38.9%
20% -44.9% 22% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses95 / 278
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)373 / 373
History coverage69d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 373 Trades
no open positions (153 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $42 −$3 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$113 +364%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $41 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $39 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$28 -96%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$31 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$19 +181%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$42 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$39 -95%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$51 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $38 +$91 +240%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $27 +$59 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
ITF Wuning: Maria Golovina vs Xinxin Yao May 26 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $3 −$1 -32%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs TNC (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: China vs Indonesia May 26 $1 +$9 +864%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $20 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $39 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $47 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $145 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $30 5d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch SELL Henrique Rocha 12¢ $30 5d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Henrique Rocha 16¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $30 5d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 7¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $61 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $20 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 25¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $75 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $29 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 891 history records