Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x407c…4ba3 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$157 (-16%) realized −$123 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%17W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$12
sports 24% −$141
economics 4% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 50% -22.3%
≤30d 2 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 50% -22.3%
≤90d 56 -0.7% -10.1% 23% 23% -11.1%
all 87 -19.5% -27.2% 20% 20% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 20% -27.1%
10% -34.2% 20% -34.1%
15% -40.5% 20% -40.4%
20% -46.4% 20% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$8 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses17 / 70
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage255d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 +$72 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-04-24? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-24? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $5 +$22 +442%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-25? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-21? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $4 +$9 +249%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $5 +$30 +595%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $5 +$24 +473%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $5 +$10 +200%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $5 +$19 +376%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 23 $10 +$14 +144%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $11 +$12 +104%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 +$21 +426%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-19? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5) Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $69 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $98 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 16h
Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 55d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 55d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 55d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 55d
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 55d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 55d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 60d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 60d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 60d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 60d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 60d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 60d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 60d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 60d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 60d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 60d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 60d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 60d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 64d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 64d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 64d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 64d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 64d
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 64d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 65d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.77 · official $131.27 · 154 history records