Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0
score
40 0x407c…49aa other 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 220d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$9,724 (+43%) realized +$9,656 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%88W / 116L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$467
14 days−$1,572
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$8,556
crypto 32% +$341
tech 3% −$145
economics 0% −$5
politics 0% +$33
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+73.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -85.3% -86.7% 0% 0% -92.7%
≤30d 68 +52.8% +38.3% 24% 19% -15.6%
≤90d 140 +105.8% +86.2% 38% 33% +11.5%
all 204 +91.3% +73.1% 43% 38% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.1% 38% +7.7%
10% +56.5% 30% -2.6%
15% +41.4% 25% -12.0%
20% +27.5% 23% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late +132% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$42 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$9,656
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses88 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)204 / 206
History coverage220d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? No 4¢ 14¢ $27 $104 +$77 (+289%)
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $17 −$9 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $74 −$69 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $87 −$5 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $286 −$270 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $81 −$76 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $556 −$150 -27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $73 +$4 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $129 −$90 -70%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $29 −$27 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 6? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $232 +$39 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $70 +$66 +95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$4 +160%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $91 −$64 -70%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 06 $350 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 6? Jun 06 $15 −$8 -52%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $29 +$15 +51%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $124 +$272 +219%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $8 +$165 +1966%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$472 +9960%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $18 +$642 +3640%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $28 +$355 +1280%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $199 +$37 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22m
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $74 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 6¢ $56 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $29 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 15¢ $79 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $58 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $207 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $74 4d
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? BUY No 6¢ $3 4d
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? BUY No 4¢ $3 4d
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? BUY No 5¢ $8 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 6¢ $48 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 11¢ $145 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 14¢ $160 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 8¢ $77 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 7¢ $73 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 24¢ $372 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.44 · official $121.51 (match) · 1332 history records