Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x407d…5f30 other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%41W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$10
other 27% +$5
sports 19% $0
politics 3% +$1
finance 2% +$3
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 28 -0.6% -10.1% 32% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 39 -0.4% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 125 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses41 / 84
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage453d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $75 $76 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 30¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $76 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $123 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $87 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $84 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $62 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $56 −$2 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $83 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $234 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $137 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $151 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $75 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $82 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $78 −$4 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $301 −$7 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $133 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $134 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $94 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $153 +$4 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $6 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $19 −$1 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $165 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $4 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $83 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $8 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $92 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $175 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $84 −$1 -1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $408 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,214 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $117 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $571 +$1 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 02 $3 $0 -11%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 25 $11 $0 -2%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $75 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $76 12h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $76 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $48 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $73 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $85 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $33 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $31 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $84 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $84 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $54 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $9 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $13 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $77 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $62 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $62 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $16 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $60 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.92 · official $75.85 (match) · 496 history records