Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4082…f5b2 other 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,540 (-1%) realized −$1,541 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%29W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,119per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$16
14 days−$44
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$256
politics 32% −$75
sports 9% −$1,223
economics 3% −$5
world 2% −$10
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 +3.0% -6.8% 12% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 77 +0.2% -9.3% 8% 4% -10.6%
all 156 -1.1% -10.5% 19% 12% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 12% -10.3%
10% -19.1% 12% -18.9%
15% -26.9% 10% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,518) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized−$1,541
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses29 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,119
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $452 $453 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,906 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $778 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,942 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,663 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,121 −$4 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,133 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,373 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,186 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,421 −$2 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,239 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,911 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $6,367 −$9 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,142 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,105 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $79 +$74 +93%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,442 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,792 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $470 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $571 +$1 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,217 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,918 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $754 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $69 +$34 +50%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,229 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,334 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 22 $62 +$51 +83%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 21 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,022 −$4 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $6,698 −$7 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,243 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,786 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $2,724 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,621 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,795 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $601 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $602 2h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $260 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $925 3d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $926 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $804 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $805 3d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $842 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $843 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,037 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,075 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,077 5d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,131 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,133 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $452 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,436 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,438 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,167 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,168 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,048 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,050 11d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,568 11d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,570 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,156 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,158 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $913 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $915 12d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,441 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.76 · official $452.76 (match) · 552 history records