Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4087…351a world 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$13
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$18
politics 25% −$4
other 17% +$2
sports 13% −$3
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.2% -3.9% 33% 33% -8.7%
≤30d 27 +1.6% -8.0% 37% 11% -8.5%
≤90d 64 +32.0% +19.4% 31% 6% -9.0%
all 69 +24.7% +12.8% 30% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.8% 7% -9.3%
10% +2.0% 4% -18.0%
15% -7.8% 4% -25.9%
20% -16.9% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 48
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage519d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 +$3 +21%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $109 −$2 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $112 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $29 +$13 +44%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $44 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $98 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $17 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $19 +$3 +15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $71 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $81 +$4 +5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $43 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $6 −$2 -28%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $122 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $49 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $49 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $4 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 3m
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $2 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $37 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $17 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $14 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $13 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $45 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $40 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $12 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $6 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $52 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $34 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.02 · official $5.76 (match) · 319 history records