Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4087…ffd2 other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,169 (-11%) realized −$1,004 · open −$165
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$1,237
14 days−$1,048
30 days−$721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1,026
world 29% −$351
politics 15% +$150
sports 6% +$335
crypto 3% −$308
tech 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -33.4% -39.8% 29% 29% -51.4%
≤30d 43 -13.7% -22.0% 40% 33% -22.3%
≤90d 61 -17.3% -25.2% 36% 28% -18.3%
all 71 -16.3% -24.3% 39% 28% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 28% -18.4%
10% -31.5% 27% -26.2%
15% -38.1% 15% -33.4%
20% -44.2% 10% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$61 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized−$1,004
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 43
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions9
Markets (closed)71 / 80
History coverage119d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 35¢ $111 $139 +$29 (+26%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 60¢ 16¢ $180 $48 −$132 (-74%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 63¢ 30¢ $81 $38 −$43 (-53%)
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+32%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 4¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-93%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$5 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $201 +$62 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $303 −$166 -55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$49 +24%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland win o Jun 24 $26 +$80 +311%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $85 −$64 -74%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 21 $401 −$401 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 21 $382 −$382 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $210 +$202 +96%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 19 $146 −$28 -19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$44 -43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$18 -86%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$9 -29%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$253 +492%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $102 −$41 -40%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $385 +$110 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$173 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 −$88 -72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$79 -39%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $120 +$130 +108%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 09 $34 +$8 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $112 +$7 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 07 $80 +$25 +31%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $354 +$126 +35%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $102 +$23 +23%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b May 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 −$10 -96%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 16 $126 +$4 +3%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $389 −$17 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $101 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $137 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 41h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland win o SELL 99¢ $105 41h
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 46h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland win o BUY 23¢ $26 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 2d
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $70 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $412 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $110 5d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 7d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 7d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 7d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $35 7d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.01 · official $469.05 (match) · 238 history records