Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4088…1308
crypto · 27 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$899 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$900 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$900
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,200
Trades / day3473.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$900
7 days+$900
14 days+$900
30 days+$900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? Yes 42¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$643 +11044%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $844 −$60 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1,274 +$32 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1,194 +$69 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1,413 −$50 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1,433 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $906 +$54 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1,191 +$49 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1,699 −$19 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $1,897 −$192 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1,486 −$42 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1,453 −$34 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $788 −$13 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $818 −$20 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1,499 −$107 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1,065 −$27 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1,102 −$203 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1,423 +$58 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $501 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1,318 +$66 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1,416 −$54 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $216 +$106 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1,307 +$76 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1,090 −$57 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1,034 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1,198 −$91 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1,317 +$137 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1,509 +$550 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$257
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $45 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $75 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $79 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $12 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $13 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $8 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $32 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $18 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $18 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $32 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+57.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +73.5% +57.0% 50% 11% -8.5%
≤30d 28 +73.5% +57.0% 50% 11% -8.5%
≤90d 28 +73.5% +57.0% 50% 11% -8.5%
all 28 +73.5% +57.0% 50% 11% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3473.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.0% 11% -8.5%
10% +42.0% 11% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here +28.3% 11% -25.2%
20% +15.7% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.60 · official $1.60 (match) · 3500 history records