Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x408e…94f5 politics 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$23
other 18% −$4
world 17% −$3
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 29 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.8%
all 29 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$943) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage86d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el Jun 22 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $52 $0 -0%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $920 −$3 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 11 $25 $0 -1%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $951 −$2 -0%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 09 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $958 −$2 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $992 −$14 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? May 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? May 05 $25 $0 -1%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $943 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 05 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 05 $24 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $75 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $131 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for math on March 31? Mar 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 28 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,127 6m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $12 18m
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,105 30m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $24 41m
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el SELL No 100¢ $1,244 51m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el BUY No 100¢ $1,216 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,157 1h
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,159 2h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 38d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 38d
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $29 38d
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 38d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 38d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 38d
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $19 38d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 38d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 38d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $52 41d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $25 41d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $19 41d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $14 41d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $33 41d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $39 41d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 42d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $917 42d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 42d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $864 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.93 · official $43.93 (match) · 90 history records