Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x4091…b806 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+15%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.4% -26.2% 57% 57% +10.5%
≤30d 7 -18.4% -26.2% 57% 57% +10.5%
≤90d 7 -18.4% -26.2% 57% 57% +10.5%
all 7 -18.4% -26.2% 57% 57% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 57% +10.5%
10% -33.2% 57% -0.1%
15% -39.7% 29% -9.7%
20% -45.6% 14% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18 +$10 +54%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $16 +$6 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $12 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $9 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records