Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4095…2e31 weather 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$392 (-7%) realized −$414 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%89W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$44
14 days+$59
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% −$584
weather 27% −$4
other 16% +$77
world 16% +$2
finance 5% +$32
politics 4% +$17
tech 3% +$22
sports 0% −$6
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -4.1% -13.3% 64% 33% -7.6%
≤30d 94 -22.6% -30.0% 53% 34% -7.9%
≤90d 170 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 38% -17.6%
all 170 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 38% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 38% -17.6%
10% -20.2% 26% -25.5%
15% -27.9% 22% -32.7%
20% -35.0% 16% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$414
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses89 / 81
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)170 / 178
History coverage72d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 70¢ 80¢ $136 $154 +$18 (+13%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 77¢ 84¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $50 +$31 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $60 −$44 -74%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $151 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $190 +$4 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $161 +$32 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $164 +$9 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $146 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $141 −$2 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $162 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $153 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $185 +$19 +10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$2 +7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $32 −$10 -30%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$10 +37%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 13 $49 −$17 -34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$7 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $30 −$20 -65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$7 +56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $13 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 80¢ $50 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND Will Netherlands win o BUY 51¢ $5 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $81 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $11 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $50 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $53 8h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $50 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 77¢ $50 24h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $28 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $151 25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $190 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 83¢ $161 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $2 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 40h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 40h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 94¢ $148 41h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 94¢ $25 41h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $142 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $146 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $135 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.97 · official $232.97 · 402 history records