Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4098…d8da world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$2
other 20% +$2
finance 8% +$8
culture 5% +$1
politics 5% −$5
crypto 3% $0
sports 1% −$11
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.6% -6.3% 40% 40% -8.1%
≤30d 10 +4.1% -5.8% 40% 40% -7.1%
≤90d 15 +2.3% -7.4% 33% 27% -7.9%
all 35 -5.3% -14.3% 26% 14% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 14% -10.0%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage267d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $21 +$2 +11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $6 $0 -7%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $63 +$8 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 +$5 +15%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $87 −$3 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $60 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $34 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $6 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-23? Nov 25 $12 +$2 +15%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Nov 19 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Nov 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Oct 23 $23 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 23 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $23 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 28 $1 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $39 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $46 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $56 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $61 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $61 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $35 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $7 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $47 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.81 · official $7.33 (match) · 188 history records