Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4099…c1e7 crypto 12 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-68%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$32
other 6% −$3
sports 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-82.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -80.2% -82.1% 17% 8% -74.0%
≤30d 12 -80.2% -82.1% 17% 8% -74.0%
≤90d 12 -80.2% -82.1% 17% 8% -74.0%
all 12 -80.2% -82.1% 17% 8% -74.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.1% 8% -74.0%
10% -83.8% 8% -76.4%
15% -85.4% 0% -78.7%
20% -86.8% 0% -80.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records