Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x409a…f4de crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate88%22W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -4.2% -13.3% 88% 36% -12.6%
≤30d 25 -4.2% -13.3% 88% 36% -12.6%
≤90d 25 -4.2% -13.3% 88% 36% -12.6%
all 25 -4.2% -13.3% 88% 36% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 36% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 4% -21.0%
15% -29.2% 0% -28.6%
20% -36.1% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses22 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records