Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
40 0x409c…e1ae crypto 256 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+2%) realized +$56 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%245W / 4L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$52
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$66
politics 4% +$4
finance 3% −$18
other 1% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 +1.7% -8.0% 99% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 249 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 249 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 0% -8.2%
all 249 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 0% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 0% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -17.0%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses245 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)249 / 256
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 3h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 96¢ $14 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.23 · official $141.23 (match) · 508 history records