Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x409f…543a
other · 35 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,653 -235%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,572 · open −$117
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$267
Realized−$2,572
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 97
Open positions23
Markets (closed)111 / 35
History coverage14d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day258.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 23 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,640
7 days−$2,606
14 days−$2,572
30 days−$2,572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $75 $112 +$38 (+50%)
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $38 $19 −$19 (-50%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $38 $19 −$19 (-50%)
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $38 $19 −$19 (-50%)
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $38 $19 −$19 (-50%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $37 $19 −$19 (-50%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $35 $18 −$18 (-50%)
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $11 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+544%)
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $119 −$86 -72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 12 $178 −$115 -65%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on wee Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Breno Corã win Big Brother Brasil 26? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Como win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -44%
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presiden Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Rudy Gobert win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Jun 12 $99 −$95 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $150 −$149 -99%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 12 $15 −$13 -91%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 12 $0 +$15 +603036%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next H Jun 12 $0 +$6 +221465%
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Crystal Palace be relegated from the English Premier League after Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Zach Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 12 $45 −$38 -85%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $175 −$173 -99%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$100
economics 17% −$8
politics 16% −$75
tech 16% −$64
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 6h
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 6h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 8h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 8h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 8h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 8h
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 8h
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 8h
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 8h
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 8h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -12.0% -20.4% 11% 11% -79.1%
≤30d 111 +6.1% -4.0% 13% 13% -74.6%
≤90d 111 +6.1% -4.0% 13% 13% -74.6%
all 111 +6.1% -4.0% 13% 13% -74.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover258.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 13% -74.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 12% -77.0%
15% -21.6% 11% -79.2%
20% -29.2% 11% -81.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.34 · official $267.34 (match) · 3500 history records