Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:14:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

40 0x40a0…829f sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$242 (-11%) realized −$242 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate42%11W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$88per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$26est.

Kalshi-fit85%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$162

7 days+$162

14 days+$162

30 days+$162

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-13.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+8.4%	-1.9%	48%	48%	-2.7%
≤30d	21	+8.4%	-1.9%	48%	48%	-2.7%
≤90d	21	+8.4%	-1.9%	48%	48%	-2.7%
all	26	-4.0%	-13.1%	42%	42%	-6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.1%	42%	-6.0%
10%	-21.4%	42%	-15.0%
15%	-29.0%	35%	-23.2%
20%	-36.0%	23%	-30.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -51% → late +43% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$100 vs −$67 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.09 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$242

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses11 / 15

Est. fees paid−$26

Open positions0

Markets (closed)26 / 26

History coverage155d

Avg bet$88

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 26 Trades

no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$102	+$255	+250%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	Jun 23	$26	+$111	+433%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 23	$26	−$25	-98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$101	+$34	+34%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$101	+$48	+48%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 23	$101	+$77	+76%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-98%
Spread: France (-5.5)	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$101	+$68	+67%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$102	+$255	+249%
Spread: France (-3.5)	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$101	−$100	-99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$101	−$100	-99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$304	−$300	-98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 21	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 21	$201	+$58	+29%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$202	+$84	+42%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$202	+$96	+48%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Jan 20	$59	−$58	-99%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Jan 20	$9	+$11	+120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Jan 20	$9	−$9	-100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Jan 20	$9	−$9	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Jan 20	$9	−$9	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	29¢	$51	2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	BUY Yes	18¢	$26	2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	27¢	$26	2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	20¢	$26	9h
Spread: France (-5.5)	BUY France	13¢	$26	9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	36¢	$25	9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	36¢	$25	9h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$169	11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	100¢	$357	11h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	BUY Over	67¢	$101	11h
Spread: France (-3.5)	BUY France	35¢	$51	11h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	74¢	$101	11h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	52¢	$101	11h
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	56¢	$101	11h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	15¢	$51	12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	28¢	$102	12h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5	BUY Over	52¢	$101	13h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$101	13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$304	13h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	42¢	$102	36h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	44¢	$102	36h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	SELL Spain	100¢	$259	36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Spain	100¢	$286	36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$298	36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	67¢	$202	37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	70¢	$202	38h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	77¢	$201	38h
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$59	153d
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$4	154d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records