Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
40 0x40a0…8ec3 crypto 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%70W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$298
other 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +29.8% +17.5% 68% 54% -8.9%
≤30d 63 +29.8% +17.5% 68% 54% -8.9%
≤90d 63 +29.8% +17.5% 68% 54% -8.9%
all 122 +10.7% +0.1% 57% 49% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 49% -12.4%
10% -9.5% 43% -20.7%
15% -18.2% 33% -28.4%
20% -26.2% 25% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$68 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses70 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage119d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $181 −$175 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $181 −$165 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $536 +$46 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $722 +$30 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $179 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $177 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $356 +$36 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $178 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $516 −$250 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $253 −$13 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $156 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $468 −$27 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $307 +$55 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $106 +$171 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$98 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$69 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$73 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $129 +$62 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$84 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $110 +$77 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $106 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$36 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $99 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $110 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $127 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $151 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $105 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $109 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $109 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $125 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $181 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $178 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $178 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $154 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records