Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x40a1…e17d other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,108 (+18%) realized +$1,156 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$123
14 days+$600
30 days+$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$965
sports 7% −$394
world 2% +$313
crypto 2% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 26 +17.4% +6.2% 23% 23% +0.2%
≤90d 44 -6.3% -15.2% 25% 25% +6.2%
all 44 -6.3% -15.2% 25% 25% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 25% +6.2%
10% -23.3% 25% -3.9%
15% -30.8% 25% -13.2%
20% -37.5% 25% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$302 vs −$70 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$1,156
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions9
Markets (closed)44 / 57
History coverage51d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $85 $74 −$11 (-12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+49%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-17%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+15%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $63 −$62 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Yoane Wissa: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $3 +$22 +874%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $31 +$134 +437%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,143 +$680 +60%
Netherlands vs. Poland: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $61 −$60 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $107 +$313 +291%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $10 +$73 +712%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $391 −$383 -98%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,116 +$997 +89%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $80 −$78 -98%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $249 −$244 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $143 +$280 +195%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer May 09 $354 +$205 +58%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $304 +$243 +80%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $198 +$292 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY 2¢ $1 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $63 13h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $36 27h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Ghana 0¢ $1 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $61 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $154 6d
Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $5 8d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 15¢ $36 8d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 6¢ $31 8d
Yoane Wissa: 2+ goals BUY Yes 3¢ $10 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 19¢ $60 9d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $165 9d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $31 9d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 10¢ $3 9d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $92 10d
Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $5 10d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 5¢ $5 10d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR I BUY 13¢ $15 10d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 11d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 32¢ $87 11d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 11d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 11d
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY No 55¢ $101 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,143 13d
Netherlands vs. Poland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $102 16d
Will Poland win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 16d
Will Poland win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.92 · official $266.89 (match) · 87 history records