Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40a1…91d7 other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$32 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$795now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$156
world 3% −$20
sports 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-81.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -79.0% -81.0% 12% 12% -47.4%
≤30d 8 -79.0% -81.0% 12% 12% -47.4%
≤90d 8 -79.0% -81.0% 12% 12% -47.4%
all 8 -79.0% -81.0% 12% 12% -47.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -81.0% 12% -47.4%
10% ← realistic here -82.8% 12% -52.4%
15% -84.4% 0% -57.0%
20% -86.0% 0% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$26 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$795
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)8 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $750 $747 −$3 (-0%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 10¢ 22¢ $9 $20 +$11 (+125%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-57%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 90¢ 28¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Over 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $182 −$122 -67%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 21 $41 −$37 -90%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $118 +$30 +26%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 6m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 6m
Belgium to win the second half? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 7m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $9 29m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 29m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 30m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $44 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3h
Spain to win the second half? SELL Yes 95¢ $148 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 4h
Belgium to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 4h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 75¢ $118 5h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $770 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $795.26 · official $795.15 (match) · 26 history records