Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40a4…db00 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$430 (+7%) realized +$489 · open −$59
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$252
30 days+$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$21
crypto 32% −$7
sports 10% +$396
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -66.7% -69.9% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -31.7% -38.2% 29% 10% -3.0%
≤90d 21 -31.7% -38.2% 29% 10% -3.0%
all 21 -31.7% -38.2% 29% 10% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 10% -3.0%
10% -44.1% 10% -12.3%
15% -49.5% 10% -20.7%
20% -54.5% 10% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$2 · ×35.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.3 per $1 lost it wins $14.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$489
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage20d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Over 62¢ 24¢ $14 $6 −$9 (-60%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $971 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $507 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $230 +$270 +117%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $15 −$8 -53%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 −$5 -53%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $315 +$185 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $453 +$1 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $466 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $12 −$11 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down $0 34h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $485 35h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $486 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $484 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $485 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $486 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $507 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $484 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $499 10d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $970 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 10d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $971 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $36 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $7 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $24 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $6 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $4 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $110 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $6 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.68 · official $5.68 (match) · 73 history records