Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40ab…93c4 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$309 (-35%) realized −$275 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%12W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$205
14 days−$303
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$332
sports 34% +$9
world 2% −$20
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -78.8% -80.9% 5% 5% -83.6%
≤30d 67 -37.7% -43.6% 18% 18% -47.4%
≤90d 67 -37.7% -43.6% 18% 18% -47.4%
all 67 -37.7% -43.6% 18% 18% -47.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 18% -47.4%
10% -49.0% 15% -52.5%
15% -53.9% 15% -57.1%
20% -58.5% 13% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$275
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 55
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)67 / 76
History coverage15d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 27¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 73¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 30¢ 6¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-82%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$35 +344%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +11%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.21 · official $99.23 (match) · 108 history records