Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40ac…e91d world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$4
other 17% +$1
politics 9% +$1
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.5% -9.0% 25% 8% -10.4%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 32% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 32% 5% -10.0%
all 41 +1.1% -8.5% 41% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 5% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage303d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $84 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +27%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $44 −$4 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $67 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $87 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $41 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $91 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Nov 14 $6 $0 +7%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $9 $0 +5%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 12h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $38 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $38 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $42 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $43 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records