Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40af…8426 other 131 markets active 3h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 111L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$19
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$10
other 27% −$19
sports 21% −$15
crypto 8% −$5
finance 7% −$6
economics 5% −$3
culture 2% −$3
tech 1% −$3
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.4% -10.8% 10% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 65 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 116 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 130 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage100d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 92¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $24 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $166 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $44 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $104 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $85 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will David Raya record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $12 −$2 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $55 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $48 $0 +1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $57 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Global Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $48 $0 -1%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $19 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 06 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $177 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $50 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 04 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $779 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $46 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $781 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $59 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $53 3h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 3h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 11h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $28 12h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $29 16h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $44 17h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $44 21h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $51 22h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $53 28h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $46 28h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $46 36h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $16 37h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $16 44h
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $17 45h
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $17 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $23 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $24 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $61 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $45 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $45 3d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $39 3d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 88¢ $37 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 90¢ $38 4d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.96 · official $51.96 (match) · 488 history records