Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40b0…f139 weather 454 markets active 4d ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,331 (+41%) realized +$5,331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%116W / 445L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day86.3pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$366
weather 35% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 327 -27.2% -34.1% 22% 22% -10.5%
≤30d 372 -31.2% -37.8% 21% 21% -15.6%
≤90d 561 -38.7% -44.6% 21% 20% -7.6%
all 561 -38.7% -44.6% 21% 20% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.6% 20% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -49.9% 18% -16.4%
15% -54.7% 16% -24.5%
20% -59.2% 16% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -55% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$9 · ×4.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses116 / 445
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)561 / 454
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day86.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 561 Trades
no open positions (384 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 6? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or higher on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 6? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on May 6? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C or below on May 7? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 7? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 6? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 6? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on May 6 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 7? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 34-35°F on May 6? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C or higher on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C or below on May 7? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 7? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 6? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on May Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 7? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 6? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 7? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 7? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 6? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on May 6? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 6? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on May Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 7? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 54¢ $135 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $182 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records