Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x40b2…6fd2 crypto 283 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$670 (+6%) realized −$1,231 · open +$1,901
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%112W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days+$352
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$2,042
sports 5% +$375
other 3% −$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +79.7% +62.6% 37% 37% +41.3%
≤30d 80 +11.0% +0.4% 25% 25% -12.9%
≤90d 259 +1.5% -8.1% 39% 36% -8.7%
all 276 +2.1% -7.6% 41% 38% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 38% -6.7%
10% -16.5% 35% -15.6%
15% -24.5% 33% -23.8%
20% -31.9% 32% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$25 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$2,006
Realized−$1,231
Unrealized+$1,901
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses112 / 164
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)276 / 283
History coverage93d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $13 $1,725 +$1,712 (+13170%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 4¢ 50¢ $5 $65 +$60 (+1136%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 21¢ 50¢ $26 $62 +$36 (+138%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 9¢ 50¢ $9 $50 +$41 (+453%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 12¢ 50¢ $9 $38 +$29 (+321%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 23¢ 50¢ $17 $37 +$20 (+120%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 44¢ 50¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$45 +468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $9 +$33 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$29 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$120 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$29 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$19 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $70 −$14 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$54 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$31 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$16 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$96 +564%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$127 +851%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$25 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$16 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$29 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $16 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,005.82 · official $2,005.82 (match) · 697 history records