Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x40b3…9100 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-11%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$16
sports 23% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 33% -2.1%
≤30d 6 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 33% -2.1%
≤90d 6 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 33% -2.1%
all 6 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 33% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 33% -2.1%
10% -25.7% 33% -11.5%
15% -32.9% 33% -20.1%
20% -39.5% 33% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $18 +$17 +93%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$29 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 4h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records