Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40b5…3138 world 34 markets active 3h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
politics 29% −$8
culture 9% +$2
economics 6% $0
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +12.0% +1.3% 20% 10% -8.9%
≤30d 12 +10.0% -0.5% 25% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +10.0% -0.5% 25% 8% -9.0%
all 34 -0.0% -9.5% 38% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.9%
10% -18.2% 3% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage297d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $33 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $31 +$3 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $1 $0 -15%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Nov 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Oct 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $30 −$7 -24%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $29 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $21 +$2 +9%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $33 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $33 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $23 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $7 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $30 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $5 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $6 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $12 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $30 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $30 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $30 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $31 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.45 · official $3.45 (match) · 132 history records