Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40b9…a596 sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,709 (+3%) realized +$4,709 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate74%91W / 32L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,274per market
Trades / day79.0pace
Fees−$1,371est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$620
7 days+$874
14 days+$5,213
30 days+$5,697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$5,637
other 16% +$549
crypto 3% −$490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -9.3% -17.9% 67% 13% -7.6%
≤30d 123 +0.9% -8.7% 74% 24% -5.4%
≤90d 123 +0.9% -8.7% 74% 24% -5.4%
all 123 +0.9% -8.7% 74% 24% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 24% -5.4%
10% -17.4% 14% -14.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 11% -22.7%
20% -32.7% 9% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,509) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$202 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,709
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses91 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$1,371
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage25d
Avg bet$1,274
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6,005 +$174 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4,617 +$58 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,398 −$12 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5,076 +$228 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $687 −$13 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $602 +$670 +111%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $806 +$13 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,970 −$98 -2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $154 +$12 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7,025 +$157 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,452 −$490 -11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,852 −$7 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2,017 +$36 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2,765 +$489 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4,216 −$1,045 -25%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $9,087 +$70 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8,726 +$432 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $47 +$2 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4,271 −$399 -9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,972 −$351 -18%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $489 +$160 +33%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,650 +$213 +13%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,528 +$39 +3%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $16 +$2 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,030 +$152 +8%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $2,533 +$57 +2%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $836 +$435 +52%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $908 +$2 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $1,013 +$10 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $43 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR end in a draw? Jun 09 $173 +$5 +3%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $103 −$14 -13%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $1,083 −$18 -2%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $215 −$215 -100%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $506 +$16 +3%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $279 −$102 -36%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $983 +$39 +4%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $27 +$1 +2%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1,012 +$203 +20%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $102 −$102 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $15 +$1 +8%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $3,303 +$120 +4%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,641 +$11 +1%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $955 +$76 +8%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $195 +$22 +11%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1,013 +$10 +1%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $510 +$37 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $215 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $41 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $115 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $571 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $59 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $6 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $165 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $42 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $32 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $363 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $101 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $24 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $75 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $192 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,012 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1,003 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $45 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $171 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $75 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $75 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $75 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $75 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $75 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $75 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $75 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $75 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2057 history records