Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
40 0x40b9…6f0a other 106 markets active 14h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,766 (-2%) realized −$1,766 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,081per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,735
politics 35% −$47
economics 4% −$5
sports 4% $0
world 2% −$11
culture 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -1.1% -10.6% 12% 8% -11.2%
all 105 +1.8% -7.9% 12% 10% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 10% -10.9%
10% -16.7% 10% -19.5%
15% -24.8% 10% -27.3%
20% -32.1% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,380) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$23 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$1,766
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage99d
Avg bet$1,081
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $279 $280 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $264 +$4 +2%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 29 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $315 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $220 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $4,972 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $2,004 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $941 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $2,049 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,256 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,446 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,156 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $69 +$55 +79%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,173 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $349 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $192 +$1 +1%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $1,900 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,958 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $503 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 25 $1,585 −$1,585 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $23 +$19 +83%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $2,481 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $2,686 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $1,362 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Apr 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 28 $1,481 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $4,198 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $206 13h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $206 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $264 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $305 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $305 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $380 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $380 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $315 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $315 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $378 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $378 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $219 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $214 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $214 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $208 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $208 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $475 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $476 12d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $575 12d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $575 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $479 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $480 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $455 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $455 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $520 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $521 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $541 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $541 14d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $590 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.74 · official $279.74 (match) · 313 history records