Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:56:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40bd…7413 crypto 1471 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$220 (-1%) realized −$215 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate76%1142W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day93.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$264
7 days−$256
14 days−$301
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 459 -3.0% -12.2% 72% 32% -14.5%
≤30d 1495 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 35% -11.2%
≤90d 1495 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 35% -11.2%
all 1495 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 35% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 35% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 1% -19.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -27.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$215
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1142 / 353
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1495 / 1471
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day93.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 2¢ 60¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+2925%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 90¢ 40¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.43 · official $20.00 (match) · 3500 history records