Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40c4…9404 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$84 (-22%) realized −$91 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$20
sports 38% −$82
world 8% +$7
crypto 6% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-52.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -47.5% -52.5% 31% 31% -31.9%
≤30d 16 -47.5% -52.5% 31% 31% -31.9%
≤90d 16 -47.5% -52.5% 31% 31% -31.9%
all 16 -47.5% -52.5% 31% 31% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.5% 31% -31.9%
10% -57.0% 31% -38.4%
15% -61.2% 31% -44.4%
20% -65.0% 25% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 48¢ 60¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$27 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$43 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 68¢ $20 19h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $20 19h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $10 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $15 21h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 30h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $20 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $18 33h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 46¢ $30 33h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 32¢ $5 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 53¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.19 · official $37.19 (match) · 22 history records