Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40c5…5cba politics 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (605 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$2,667 (-3%) realized −$2,244 · open −$423
Gross ROI / mkt +505% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +347% what you keep after slip
Net edge+347%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$800per market
Trades / day604.9pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$11,373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$91
economics 27% −$22
politics 15% +$164
other 14% −$140
crypto 3% −$21
tech 2% +$194
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+447.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +504.7% +447.1% 75% 50% -11.0%
≤30d 8 +504.7% +447.1% 75% 50% -11.0%
≤90d 8 +504.7% +447.1% 75% 50% -11.0%
all 8 +504.7% +447.1% 75% 50% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover604.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +447.1% 50% -11.0%
10% +394.8% 50% -19.5%
15% ← realistic here +347.0% 50% -27.3%
20% +303.1% 38% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +505% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
26.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$531 vs −$769 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$11,373
Realized−$2,244
Unrealized−$423
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions126
Markets (closed)8 / 99
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$800
Trades / day604.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 126 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $1,511 $1,504 −$7 (-0%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $1,018 $995 −$23 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $557 $546 −$11 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $315 $311 −$4 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $276 $278 +$2 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $273 $274 +$2 (+1%)
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $273 $270 −$3 (-1%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 92¢ 90¢ $226 $222 −$4 (-2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $212 $212 −$1 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $232 $206 −$26 (-11%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 100¢ 99¢ $199 $197 −$2 (-1%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $197 $195 −$2 (-1%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $191 $191 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $187 $185 −$2 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 93¢ 91¢ $186 $182 −$4 (-2%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $178 $178 +$0 (+0%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 20¢ 18¢ $192 $177 −$16 (-8%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $172 $175 +$3 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 85¢ 85¢ $169 $170 +$0 (+0%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 90¢ $171 $162 −$9 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $178 $153 −$26 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 23 $4 +$2,676 +60249%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 23 $637 −$1,538 -241%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 22 $201 +$199 +99%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $8 +$192 +2281%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 21 $300 +$114 +38%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $2,000 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $599 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 19 $297 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 1m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 90¢ $90 2m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 70¢ $35 4m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 71¢ $36 4m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 72¢ $36 4m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 73¢ $36 4m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 74¢ $30 4m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 74¢ $7 4m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 75¢ $38 5m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 76¢ $38 7m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 77¢ $38 7m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 78¢ $39 7m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 8m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 9m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 9m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 9m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 9m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 9m
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 10m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 17m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes $0 25m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes $0 25m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes $0 25m
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 100¢ $68 27m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 36m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 54m
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 56m
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? BUY Yes $16 57m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 1h
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,372.70 · official $11,374.25 (match) · 3500 history records