Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40c6…2ab0 crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-10%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%38W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$25
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -3.6% -12.8% 38% 37% -21.8%
≤30d 95 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 39% -20.6%
≤90d 95 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 39% -20.6%
all 95 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 39% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 39% -20.6%
10% -22.6% 38% -28.2%
15% -30.1% 38% -35.1%
20% -36.9% 38% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses38 / 57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$11 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$11 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records