Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40c7…3e43 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$12
other 12% −$4
sports 4% −$12
finance 3% $0
politics 1% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.6% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 23 -1.9% -11.3% 30% 4% -10.8%
≤90d 30 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 3% -10.5%
all 43 -5.8% -14.7% 35% 12% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 12% -11.5%
10% -22.9% 7% -20.0%
15% -30.3% 7% -27.7%
20% -37.2% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage528d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 86¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $47 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $40 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $24 +$4 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $25 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $48 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $51 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $27 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $25 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $103 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $26 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $38 −$14 -36%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $78 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $27 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $24 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $38 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $41 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Dec 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $160 by February 28 2025? Feb 23 $3 $0 -9%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 20 $3 $0 -2%
Pelicans vs. Kings Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Timberwolves Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Makhachev vs. Moicano Feb 04 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 04 $1 $0 -48%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 22 $2 +$1 +95%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 22 $2 +$1 +76%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? Jan 07 $6 −$4 -66%
Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? Jan 07 $7 +$3 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $28 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $23 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $8 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $28 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $13 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $10 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $4 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $24 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $28 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $21 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $8 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $28 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $4 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $25 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.21 · official $28.21 (match) · 151 history records