Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40c8…da0f
crypto · 683 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$65 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$65 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses464 / 218
Open positions0
Markets (closed)682 / 683
History coverage53d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 0 History 682 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$10
14 days+$17
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 10? No 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 10? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 76°F or higher on May 3? No 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 2? No 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% −$17
weather 24% −$60
other 11% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 40m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 45m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 8h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 293 -0.6% -10.1% 74% 74% -10.4%
≤30d 519 -1.1% -10.5% 74% 72% -9.6%
≤90d 682 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 63% -11.8%
all 682 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 63% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 63% -11.8%
10% -21.6% 50% -20.2%
15% -29.2% 19% -28.0%
20% -36.1% 9% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1339 history records