Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40c8…2b55 crypto 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3271 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,158 (-2%) realized −$1,158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate84%199W / 39L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day3271.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$512
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3271 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 238 +0.6% -9.0% 84% 50% -8.6%
≤30d 238 +0.6% -9.0% 84% 50% -8.6%
≤90d 238 +0.6% -9.0% 84% 50% -8.6%
all 238 +0.6% -9.0% 84% 50% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3271.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 50% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 1% -17.3%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$119 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses199 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day3271.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $206 −$116 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $280 +$50 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $83 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $195 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $76 −$46 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $203 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $178 +$32 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $280 +$42 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $154 +$26 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $380 −$260 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $293 +$37 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $266 +$35 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $288 −$138 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$73 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $86 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $109 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $389 −$239 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $367 −$127 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $293 +$37 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $224 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $231 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $283 +$46 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $271 +$28 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $300 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $64 −$14 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $274 +$26 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $271 +$31 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $78 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $130 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $96 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $82 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $201 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $228 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $241 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $81 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $106 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $260 +$40 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $89 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $289 +$41 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $220 +$36 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $296 +$34 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $269 +$31 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $223 +$21 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $27 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $22 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $17 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $22 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $24 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $24 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $24 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records