Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40c9…d758
other · 71 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses36 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)61 / 71
History coverage53d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 10 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 34¢ 39¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 85¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 75¢ 61¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 54¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 27¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 07 $28 −$5 -17%
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $8 $0 -6%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 07 $8 −$2 -21%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 07 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on Jun 07 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on Jun 02 $6 $0 +6%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $8 $0 +4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $9 $0 -3%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 31 $8 −$2 -21%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? May 29 $3 $0 -12%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o May 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 -7%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -4%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 -15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $8 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 29 $5 $0 -3%
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump endorse Susan Collins for ME-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? May 29 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? May 29 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $3 $0 -12%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $5 −$2 -31%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $6 −$2 -32%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +7%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 26 $4 $0 +8%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu May 24 $2 $0 +10%
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? May 22 $2 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? May 22 $3 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 +8%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 -5%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie May 20 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 20 $6 $0 +3%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $7 +$1 +12%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 +10%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso May 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 18 $2 $0 +13%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 29% −$5
world 27% +$2
sports 25% −$3
politics 15% −$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 2h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 9h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $10 9h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 12h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 13h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 58¢ $5 14h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 14h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $5 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $4 28h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $5 29h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 29h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 29h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $5 32h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 34h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 34h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 34h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 37h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 45h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 45h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 45h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 45h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 47h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY No 27¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 62% 12% -13.5%
≤30d 50 -1.1% -10.5% 56% 14% -10.7%
≤90d 61 -0.1% -9.6% 59% 16% -10.3%
all 61 -0.1% -9.6% 59% 16% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 16% -10.3%
10% -18.3% 5% -18.9%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.70 · official $63.70 (match) · 251 history records