Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40ca…2791 world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$4
other 18% $0
sports 14% $0
crypto 10% $0
culture 7% +$1
tech 4% −$1
politics 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 18% -8.5%
≤90d 11 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 18% -8.5%
all 50 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 6% -9.1%
10% -18.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage268d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $89 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +19%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 -16%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $40 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $42 +$6 +14%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 30 $13 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 27 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Oct 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 29 $4 $0 +13%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 29 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $3 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $3 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $40 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $48 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $3 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $24 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $30 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $41 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $46 13d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $21 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $20 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $32 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $9 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $34 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.68 · official $50.68 (match) · 187 history records