Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40cc…f83a sports 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$365 (-6%) realized −$365 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%86W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$301
other 5% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 0% -2.6%
≤30d 2 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 0% -14.7%
≤90d 10 -61.8% -65.4% 20% 10% -24.0%
all 177 -3.9% -13.0% 49% 47% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 47% -14.2%
10% -21.4% 47% -22.4%
15% -29.0% 46% -29.9%
20% -35.9% 40% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$29 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$365
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses86 / 91
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage232d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions (84 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $457 +$35 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $479 −$89 -19%
Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas May 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) May 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoff Apr 09 $65 −$64 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $97 −$97 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Alex Bolt vs Alex Ry Mar 28 $83 +$114 +137%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Mar 28 $50 +$33 +66%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Mar 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $34 +$30 +87%
Miami Open: Caty McNally vs Xinyu Wang Mar 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 11 $15 +$17 +113%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $38 +$16 +43%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $30 +$50 +163%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $45 +$24 +53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $60 +$25 +42%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $30 +$30 +101%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $15 +$10 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $48 +$33 +69%
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5 Mar 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score Mar 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $30 +$13 +45%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $65 +$42 +65%
Levante UD vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 07 $27 +$20 +75%
Levante UD vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Mar 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Sta Mar 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $22 +$7 +31%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $17 +$23 +132%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 06 $30 +$34 +112%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $24 −$24 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 06 $20 +$16 +82%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5) Mar 06 $15 +$10 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $22 +$24 +108%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $16 +$16 +100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 05 $21 +$17 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $492 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $457 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 10¢ $0 12d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 10¢ $263 12d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 11¢ $127 12d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $479 12d
Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas BUY Lorenzo Sonego 58¢ $23 40d
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $10 40d
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 51¢ $5 41d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $5 42d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Legacy 41¢ $10 42d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Legacy 57¢ $5 42d
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Toronto Tempo 25¢ $5 43d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Vitality 68¢ $5 43d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $5 43d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoff BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $65 79d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 64¢ $50 90d
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $97 91d
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Alex Bolt vs Alex Ry SELL Alex Bolt 100¢ $197 91d
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Alex Bolt vs Alex Ry BUY Alex Bolt 42¢ $83 91d
Blackhawks vs. Rangers SELL Rangers 100¢ $83 91d
Blackhawks vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 60¢ $50 92d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $64 98d
Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $34 98d
Miami Open: Caty McNally vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 55¢ $42 99d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $43 103d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $15 109d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY FURIA 65¢ $18 110d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY FURIA 67¢ $30 110d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY 3DMAX 37¢ $28 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records