Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x40cd…c0a3 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-0%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$767per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$17
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$48
other 38% −$171
sports 13% +$124
culture 3% −$4
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -11.1% -19.6% 8% 5% -10.3%
all 126 +0.8% -8.8% 19% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 14% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 14% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 13% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,076) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$8 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$1,081
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage125d
Avg bet$767
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $625 $626 +$0 (+0%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $456 $456 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,660 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,359 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,565 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,300 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $424 +$1 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $786 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 20 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $909 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,477 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,419 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $849 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $1,830 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $1,350 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $305 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1,707 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $1,915 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $493 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $456 34m
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $574 3h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $574 5h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $511 28h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $512 30h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $567 47h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $567 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $625 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,028 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,029 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,044 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,032 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,034 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,004 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,135 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,144 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 14d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $920 14d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $922 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,047 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,048 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $931 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $933 15d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $842 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $843 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,081.44 · official $1,081.44 (match) · 412 history records