Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:22:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40cf…d21d
politics · 156 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
+$73,629 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$52,399 · open +$9,729
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$110,695
Realized+$52,399
Unrealized+$9,729
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses70 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions59
Markets (closed)107 / 156
Avg bet$3,079
Trades / day102.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 59 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,563
7 days+$8,058
14 days+$31,832
30 days+$52,382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 96¢ $20,333 $23,688 +$3,354 (+16%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 89¢ 98¢ $9,985 $11,038 +$1,053 (+11%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $9,777 $7,554 −$2,223 (-23%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $5,595 $7,193 +$1,598 (+29%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 78¢ 91¢ $4,179 $4,894 +$715 (+17%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 84¢ 82¢ $4,660 $4,591 −$69 (-1%)
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $4,129 $4,255 +$126 (+3%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $4,250 $4,175 −$75 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $3,317 $3,640 +$323 (+10%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 75¢ 97¢ $2,245 $2,902 +$657 (+29%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 81¢ $1,836 $2,625 +$789 (+43%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 44¢ $2,760 $2,610 −$150 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 40¢ $1,592 $2,370 +$778 (+49%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 18¢ 39¢ $1,017 $2,261 +$1,244 (+122%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $2,266 $2,257 −$9 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $1,207 $2,095 +$889 (+74%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $1,725 $1,766 +$41 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 78¢ 81¢ $1,562 $1,630 +$67 (+4%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $1,215 $1,421 +$205 (+17%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $1,055 $1,395 +$340 (+32%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 7¢ 46¢ $219 $1,384 +$1,165 (+532%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 51¢ 72¢ $969 $1,375 +$406 (+42%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 32¢ 88¢ $483 $1,323 +$840 (+174%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 35¢ 34¢ $1,113 $1,111 −$2 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 78¢ $920 $1,092 +$172 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 12 $671 +$22 +3%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 12 $1,026 +$262 +26%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 11 $2,200 +$241 +11%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $1,337 −$551 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $184 −$114 -62%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 11 $451 +$50 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada recession before 2027? Jun 11 $55 −$42 -76%
Will Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 11 $68 +$87 +129%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 11 $144 −$63 -44%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5? Jun 11 $394 −$372 -94%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 11 $896 −$873 -98%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 11 $1,995 −$1,986 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 17? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2,964 +$589 +20%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $402 +$68 +17%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $375 +$85 +23%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $990 −$236 -24%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 10 $2,864 +$296 +10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $1,910 +$26 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $4,390 +$40 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $6,909 +$1,641 +24%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 09 $169 +$51 +30%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Jun 09 $36 −$29 -80%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $18 −$15 -87%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $7,374 +$2,355 +32%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $3,813 +$487 +13%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? Jun 09 $843 −$475 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $6,450 +$550 +8%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $224 −$222 -99%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $2,890 +$110 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $10,302 +$170 +2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $998 +$2,369 +237%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $312 +$59 +19%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $27,492 +$2,882 +10%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 06 $138 −$35 -25%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $1,120 +$657 +59%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government Jun 05 $733 −$476 -65%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 04 $675 +$256 +38%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 04 $87 −$17 -20%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $1,136 +$364 +32%
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $974 +$45 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $80,443 +$19,600 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 03 $1,222 +$419 +34%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $3,991 +$594 +15%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1,359 +$28 +2%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 03 $201 −$42 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% +$19,782
world 23% +$12,437
crypto 17% +$19,603
other 12% +$5,051
finance 3% +$332
sports 1% −$124
economics 1% +$5,066
tech 0% −$5
weather 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $550 4h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $556 4h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 42¢ $22 4h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $578 4h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 65¢ $581 5h
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,858 5h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $375 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $371 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $169 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $49 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $81 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 92¢ $342 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 92¢ $583 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 66¢ $660 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $491 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 29¢ $134 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 29¢ $294 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 23¢ $217 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 23¢ $128 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 19¢ $284 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 16¢ $316 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 24¢ $359 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 24¢ $121 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 15¢ $294 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $414 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $215 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -17.4% -25.3% 55% 35% -1.6%
≤30d 106 +49.8% +35.6% 65% 47% +2.9%
≤90d 107 +49.6% +35.4% 65% 48% +2.9%
all 107 +49.6% +35.4% 65% 48% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover102.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.4% 48% +2.9%
10% +22.4% 36% -6.9%
15% ← realistic here +10.6% 21% -15.9%
20% -0.2% 16% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110,695.07 · official $110,696.06 (match) · 3500 history records