Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
40 0x40d0…2e26 other 65 markets active 10d ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate54%33W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$7
crypto 5% +$1
politics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -27.5% -34.4% 67% 33% -10.3%
≤90d 5 -16.4% -24.4% 80% 20% -9.6%
all 61 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses33 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)61 / 65
History coverage607d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 17 $74 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 08 $74 $0 +0%
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $74 $0 -0%
Military action against Iran ends on March 22, 2026? Mar 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election? Mar 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will Moderates win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Mar 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Mar 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jan 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kateřina Konečná be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic Dec 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zdeněk Hřib be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte Dec 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tomio Okamura be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic af Dec 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 9? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 11? Oct 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 10? Oct 04 $20 $0 +0%
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C Aug 15 $11 $0 +0%
Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York Cit Aug 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Assists? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dejounte Murray lead the NBA in Assists? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fred VanVleet lead the NBA in Assists? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Immanuel Quickley lead the NBA in Assists? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 08 $2,472 −$2 -0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 08 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Salzburg win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Jets win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $1,215 −$1 -0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $1,247 −$1 -0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $1,239 −$1 -0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 16 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 29¢ $1 9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $74 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $75 79d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $74 103d
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $74 103d
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $74 103d
Military action against Iran ends on March 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $74 103d
Military action against Iran ends on March 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $74 103d
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election? SELL No 100¢ $68 103d
Will Moderates win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 SELL No 100¢ $7 103d
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election? BUY No 100¢ $68 103d
Will Moderates win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 BUY No 100¢ $7 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $75 151d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $75 151d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $75 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $70 190d
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $5 217d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $5 217d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $21 217d
Will Kateřina Konečná be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic SELL No 100¢ $2 217d
Will Kateřina Konečná be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic BUY No 100¢ $9 265d
Will Tomio Okamura be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic af BUY No 100¢ $20 265d
Will Zdeněk Hřib be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte BUY No 100¢ $15 265d
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 315d
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio BUY No 100¢ $5 354d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.97 · official $62.97 (match) · 163 history records