Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40d1…6596 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 312d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+2%) realized +$34 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$6
other 20% +$30
politics 5% −$2
tech 3% $0
sports 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +263.8% +229.1% 50% 25% -7.6%
≤30d 12 +88.0% +70.1% 42% 8% -8.5%
≤90d 12 +88.0% +70.1% 42% 8% -8.5%
all 36 +37.0% +24.0% 39% 6% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.0% 6% -6.6%
10% +12.1% 6% -15.5%
15% +1.3% 6% -23.7%
20% -8.7% 6% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.33 per $1 lost it wins $11.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage312d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $8 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $159 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $113 +$4 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $161 +$3 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $81 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $20 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $9 +$30 +335%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 13 $6 −$3 -47%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $46 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $50 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $47 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $97 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $55 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $61 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $69 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $26 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $34 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $24 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $21 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $31 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $71 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.61 · official $45.03 (match) · 287 history records