Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x40d3…6bc9 crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$66 (+9%) realized +$65 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%55W / 32L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$12
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +4.8% -5.2% 63% 47% -7.8%
≤30d 87 +4.8% -5.2% 63% 47% -7.8%
≤90d 87 +4.8% -5.2% 63% 47% -7.8%
all 87 +4.8% -5.2% 63% 47% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 47% -7.8%
10% -14.2% 40% -16.6%
15% -22.5% 33% -24.7%
20% -30.1% 20% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses55 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage7d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 82¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Down 11¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $66 −$41 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +138%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 10¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 12¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 12¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 22¢ $17 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $61 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.16 · official $9.16 (match) · 194 history records