Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40d5…1c74 crypto 233 markets active 0h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,468 (-18%) realized −$5,456 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%91W / 141L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$135
14 days−$858
30 days−$1,343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$5,401
sports 5% −$1,091
other 0% −$20
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -21.8% -29.2% 50% 40% -5.1%
≤30d 24 -34.8% -41.0% 42% 33% -38.1%
≤90d 147 -20.2% -27.8% 41% 39% -32.8%
all 232 -20.0% -27.6% 39% 37% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 37% -33.3%
10% -34.6% 31% -39.7%
15% -40.9% 22% -45.5%
20% -46.7% 17% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$85 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$5,456
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses91 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage212d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET Down 48¢ 36¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $98 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $96 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Jun 22 $700 +$300 +43%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $519 +$42 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $225 −$217 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $94 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $330 +$450 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -95%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $175 −$173 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $819 −$819 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $496 −$485 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $255 −$239 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 30 $905 −$907 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6AM ET Apr 29 $516 +$118 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET Apr 27 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4PM ET Apr 27 $620 −$592 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3PM ET Apr 27 $1,104 +$327 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2PM ET Apr 27 $1,311 +$190 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 27 $348 −$341 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 27 $195 +$71 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 27 $410 +$380 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 27 $90 −$87 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 27 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 22 $34 −$32 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 20 $100 −$93 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11AM ET Apr 17 $180 −$91 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$28 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 17 $238 −$233 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 17 $243 −$200 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6AM ET Apr 17 $539 −$504 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5AM ET Apr 17 $390 +$110 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 15 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $80 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $34 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.02 · official $42.19 · 1737 history records