Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40d6…9892
sports · 870 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,137 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,104 · open −$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$489
Realized−$1,104
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses412 / 549
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions73
Markets (closed)961 / 870
History coverage14d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day206.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 73 History 961 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,017
7 days−$1,113
14 days−$1,093
30 days−$1,104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 51¢ 100¢ $22 $44 +$22 (+97%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 47¢ 100¢ $18 $38 +$20 (+113%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 54¢ 100¢ $16 $29 +$13 (+86%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 44¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 66¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+52%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 42¢ 44¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 32¢ 30¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 50¢ 55¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 65¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+54%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Paraguay 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Filippo Romano 36¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$6 (+176%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 96¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Japan 75¢ 74¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 51¢ 52¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Vitality 62¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+60%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 84¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 64¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $0 $0 +281%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 12 $4 −$4 -103%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $8 −$9 -110%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -101%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Parma: Alycia Parks vs Susan Bandecchi Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -101%
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Clara Tauson vs Daria Snigur Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North A Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will América de Cali win on 2026-05-28? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -114%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Tirante (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5) Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: REBORN vs Joblife - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -369%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Sentinels - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% −$405
other 16% −$61
crypto 1% −$31
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 3m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $2 4m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 27¢ $1 9m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 27¢ $1 9m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $2 17m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 38¢ $2 18m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $2 19m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 19m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 21m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 22m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 22m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 22m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 93¢ $2 22m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 66¢ $2 27m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 50¢ $3 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $3 30m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 74¢ $7 31m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 53¢ $0 36m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 36m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 55¢ $4 36m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 82¢ $6 39m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 42m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 36¢ $4 43m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $5 53m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $0 56m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $6 57m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 79¢ $4 58m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 83¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 83¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 35¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 649 -31.0% -37.6% 38% 34% -31.3%
≤30d 961 -20.9% -28.4% 43% 39% -22.9%
≤90d 961 -20.9% -28.4% 43% 39% -22.9%
all 961 -20.9% -28.4% 43% 39% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover206.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 39% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.2% 33% -30.3%
15% -41.5% 27% -37.0%
20% -47.2% 19% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.94 · official $487.83 (match) · 3500 history records