Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
40 0x40d7…0bd0 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+38%) realized +$52 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$30
other 14% +$19
crypto 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +26.5% +14.4% 64% 64% +31.9%
≤30d 11 +26.5% +14.4% 64% 64% +31.9%
≤90d 11 +26.5% +14.4% 64% 64% +31.9%
all 11 +26.5% +14.4% 64% 64% +31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 64% +31.9%
10% +3.5% 55% +19.3%
15% -6.5% 55% +7.8%
20% -15.7% 55% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 47¢ 48¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$19 +96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$15 +73%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $23 +$18 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $13 +$10 +72%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 18 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.93 · official $29.93 (match) · 22 history records